GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Crude oil has fallen after china raised energy prices. China raised petrol and diesel by 18 per cent and electricity tariffs rose by just less than 5 per cent. Technically if crude oil does not break $141 in the rest of the month then a fall to $120 and $110.60 is on the cards. Base metals will be volatile after the Peru government clinched a deal with mining workers. However workers are yet to return to work. Trading strategy in base metals is to buy only on a break of key technical resistances. Nickel continues to disappoint and looks set to fall below 2008 lows.

Next week is Fed week. Till then there is no major market moving economic news. The Fed is expected to remain hawkish and thereafter the US dollar will be the key to commodity prices. Crude oil traders will be preparing for the hurricane season in July. July to September, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will be the key for crude oil prices. In 2007 crude oil prices fell as there no major hurricanes.

COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $363.0

$371 price target achieved. As long as copper holds $369 it will target $386 and $394.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60

A fall below $130.64 will result in $125.60 and $121.60. Resistance at $135.10 and $138.60

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