Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Base metals

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators have turned from a neutral price pattern to a bullish bias. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 52.46). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 52.46 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

3.3880 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3785 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3785 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3648 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3027 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2695 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.2443 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2140 - High
3.1990 - Last Price
3.1845 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1450 - Low
3.1253 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1060 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.1006 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0789 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.9835 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
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