GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The crude oil awakening begins as US and UK regulators have started investigating into the rise of crude oil prices. US regulators revealed a wide-ranging investigation into crude oil trading practices amid increasing congressional concern over the role of speculators in record energy prices. Citing unprecedented market conditions, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it was breaking with its customary secrecy to disclose that since December 2007 it had been investigating “the purchase, transportation, storage, and trading of crude oil and related derivative contracts”. The statement came as the agency tightened its oversight of oil and energy derivatives markets by agreeing to share more information on traders’ positions in key energy contracts with the UK’s Financial Services Authority.

Politicians are bowing to public pressure as truckers in the UK and fishermen in France have started raising their voice in a big way. These politicians act only when they feel that their power is nearing an end. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s public rating is at an all time low. The same is with Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. Crude oil prices along with higher food prices are pinching voters across the globe. Between now and the end of 2009, there are more than fifteen countries moving into general elections. In almost all the countries the chances of the ruling coming into power are very thin unless energy and food prices fall and stabilise. The long term rise in food and energy prices is here to stay, but that does not mean prices rise nearly fifty percent in less than six months.

There could be further profit taking in crude oil prices as traders book profit ahead of the weekend. $120.40 and $124.80 are the key intra day support. This has been the best month for the US dollar in 2008. Unless the US economy stumbles, one should expect further gains for the US dollar in June. Base metals and precious metals can gain today on short covering before the weekend.

COPPER -- JULY FUTURE

Copper needs to close over $356 today else it will fall to $347 (200 day MA) and $336.10. Resistance at $372 and $378.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE

As long as $119.80 holds till next week, downside will be limited.

MCXARUN
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