energy intraday

Energy
29 May 2008 10:38:09



Energy May 29 2008

Major Headlines:

Indonesia, the only OPEC member in Southeast Asia, will pull out of the group as aging fields and declining production force the region's biggest economy to boost imports.

Oil fell below $128 a barrel after the average U.S. gasoline pump prices rose to a record $3.937 a gallon, limiting demand at the start of the summer driving season. The dollar also gained against the euro for a second day, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Crude oil fell to a one-week low on signs that record U.S. gasoline prices will cut fuel consumption during the summer driving season. Gasoline pump prices reached an all-time high Monday, curbing demand at the start of the summer, when the country's fuel use typically peaks. Higher prices and a housing slump helped push U.S. consumer confidence to the lowest level since October 1992, a report showed Monday.

Oil markets are ``stressed'' by a lack of supply that's expected to continue for the foreseeable future, the International Energy Agency' said,

Crude prices drew some support from news of a weekend rebel attack on a Nigerian oil facility that cut about 130,000 barrels of the nation's oil production, said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., in a research note. News of disruptions in Nigeria, a major U.S. supplier, have helped push oil prices higher over the past year

According to EIA world oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2008. U.S. consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum is expected to decline in 2008 by about 190,000 bbl/d as a result of the economic slowdown and high petroleum prices. After accounting for increased ethanol use, U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to fall by 330,000 bbl/d in 2008.

Natural gas in New York declined, following oil lower, amid speculation record prices will slash fuel demand. Norway, the second-largest seller of natural gas to Europe, will seek to increase annual exports by about 50 percent to compensate for declining oil output, the country's deputy oil minister said

MCX Crude Oil June Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5640 levels. If market breaches 5640 may see prices to take further upside towards 5720 and 5855 However if it holds back below 5425 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5290 and 5210

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5660 Target 5580 and 5520 Stoploss 5710

MCX Natural gas June Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 517.30 levels. If market breaches 517.30 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.60 and 533.33 However if it holds back below 501.30may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.60and 485.30


Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 516 Target 512 and 507 Stop loss at 519.50


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