Tuesday, March 18, 2008

market outlook

April gold closed higher on Monday and above psychological resistance crossing at 1004.80 due to rising financial concerns and
the falling U.S. Dollar. Profit taking tempered early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have overbought, diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be
in or is near. If April extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 968.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 1033.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 983.20. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 968.70.

May silver closed lower on Monday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.189 hinting that a double top with the
March 6th high might have been posted today. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but diverging hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends this
winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 22.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 19.487 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 21.440 then
monthly resistance crossing at 22.51. First support is today's low crossing at 19.800 then the 20-day moving average crossing
at 19.488.

May copper closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.64 confirming that a short-
term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the
38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last
Friday's high crossing at 390.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40. First support is today's low crossing at
365.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 358.50.

April crude oil closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 106-72 signaling that a short-
term top appears to have been posted. Today's sell off was triggered by rising concerns over both the U.S. and world
economies, which could lead to lower energy demand. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If April extends this winter's rally, upside targets will be hard to project now that April has traded into uncharted
territory. Although, this winter's trading range projects a possible rally to the 113.20 area. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 111.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.48. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 98.87.

April Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Monday confirming last Friday's key reversal down and closed below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 9.075 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI turned bearish with today's sharp decline signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally
crossing at 8.662 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.477 then the 10-day
moving average crossing at 9.782. First support is today's low crossing at 9.064. Second support is the 50% retracement level
of this year's rally crossing at 8.662.

MCXARUN
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