Basemetals intraday

· The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index fell 2.7 percent to 1,486.817 as of 2:30 p.m. in London, the biggest drop since Aug. 16. Coffee and sugar dropped more than 7 percent, the
most of any commodity futures. Before today, commodities had gained 20 percent this year.

· The New York Federal Reserve's manufacturing index fell from -11.7 to -22.2 in March, a new record low and a sign of further contraction.



LME Inventory update (17 March, 2008)

alumi 12950

coppe 275

nickel -174

lead 200

zinc -950

Major Headline:

· China, the world's largest consumer of aluminum, didn't increase imports or cut exports after snowstorms and rising power costs reduce production in the first two months of the year, Macquarie Group Ltd. said. China remained a net exporter of aluminum and alloys in January-February, the Australian bank's analysts said, citing provisional trade figures.

· Global supply and demand will be about equal this year, compared with a
glut of as much as 700,000 metric tons expected, Rio Tinto Group said March 13.

· China's imports of aluminum and alloys were 22,146 tons in February whereas exports were 39,678 tons, customs data showed. Production in China fell in the period after snowstorms damaged power grids and forced smelters to shut down.

· Copper fell to almost a one-month low in London, and aluminum and zinc also declined, on speculation that a two-month rally left metals prices no longer reflecting the outlook for supply and demand.

· Chile, the world's biggest copper producer, said the value of its exports of the metal jumped 33
percent in February. Exports rose to $3.01 billion from $2.26 billion a year earlier, the Chilean central bank said on its Web site today. Chile's government will report February production figures on March 31.

· The London Metal Exchange index tracking six industrial metals rose 26 percent in January and February and copper reached a record March 6. Refined copper and alloy imports by China, the world's largest user of the metal, fell 1.7 percent in the first two months, the Beijing-based customs office said today.

· Copper, which tracks global industrial production, has risen 23 percent this year as China's economy expands, stoking speculation that prices will rise for a seventh year. Hedge, index and pension funds increased investments in commodities including metals to hedge against a weaker dollar and inflation and to diversify as stock markets declined.

· Copper stockpiles on the LME rose for the first time since Feb. 25, expanding 275 tons, or 0.2 percent, to 125,500 tons.

· Including those monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, inventories totalled 198,139 tons, or 3.9 days of global
consumption. The average was 4.9 days last year.

· Zinc consumption lagged behind output in January, leaving a surplus as production from mines and smelters rose, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said.

· Global consumption of zinc, used to galvanize steel, was 978,000 metric tons in the first month of the year, the Lisbon- based group said today on its Web site. Production of refined
metal was 1.005 million tons in the period, creating an oversupply of 27,000 tons, according to the organization.

· Zinc output from mines soared 15 percent in January. China, the world's largest miner, produced 317,000 tons for an increase of 28 percent. Colombia, where the San Cristobal lead and zinc mine started production last year, dug out 32,000 tons, compared with 14,000 tons in the corresponding period last year. Output from smelters advanced 5.7 percent from a year earlier.

· Zinc has gained 6.3 percent this year, the least among all metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, as supply growth limited gains. Stockpiles of the metal monitored by the exchange
have risen 39 percent this year.


MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:MCX Copper April: Sell at 334 Target 328 and 324 Stop loss 338.50


MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:MCX Zinc March: Sell at 103 Target 98.60 and 96 Stop loss at 104.20



MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1245 Target 1220 and 1205 Stop loss at 1267


MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 119 Target 116 and 114 Stop loss 120.20

MCXARUN
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