Energy intraday

§ Oil prices recovered Tuesday as rising gasoline prices and a weaker U.S. dollar brought investors back to the market. Oil futures stumbled Tuesday, falling below $100 a barrel after disappointing reports on home prices and consumer confidence raised new worries about the economy.

§ Gas and diesel prices, meanwhile, retreated further from recent their record levels.

§ Consumer confidence fell much more than expected this month, according to the Conference Board. The decline increased the oil market's concerns that hesitant consumers would further weaken the economy and depress demand for fuel.

§ Meanwhile, home prices as measured by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index fell by 11.4 percent in January.

§ Many analysts believe the dollar's recent depreciation was the primary reason oil surged to a record near $112 a barrel last week, since oil and other commodities are seen as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar.

§ The recent decline in oil prices has been far from decisive, and there are signs that some investors are willing to look beyond the dollar for future price direction. Some investors have sold contracts on concerns that a slowing U.S. economy would dampen crude oil demand. Last week, oil prices dipped in part on worry that Bear Stearns' near-collapse was a sign of significant economic problems.

§ Some analysts believe oil's recent declines are temporary -- a correction in a bull market -- and that prices will forge higher again when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, as is widely expected. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the dollar.

§ Heating oil futures were higher as demand was almost 10 percent above average levels for this time of the year, as U.S. weather forecasts were expecting lower temperatures than normal this week, said a report from JBC Energy in Vienna, Austria. At the same time, the "U.S. gasoline contract was reportedly supported by a number of problems with gasoline making units at the country's refineries," JBC Energy said.

MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 3980 Target 4065 and 4100 Stop loss 3965



MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 378 Target 389 and 396 Stop loss 372

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