Base metals intraday

§ A widely watched index of U.S. home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, its steepest drop since data for the indicator was first collected in 1987.The decline reported Tuesday in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months. The index tracks the prices of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.

§ Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed.

Major Headline:

§ Copper gained for the second straight day in New York as bank stocks led a rebound in global equities, easing concern that financial-market turmoil would roil metals and other raw materials.

§ Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, said full-year profit fell 13 percent after processing fees dropped. Net income declined to 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million), or 1.4 yuan a share last year, the Guixi, Jiangxi province-based company said in a statement today. The profit compares with the 4.5 billion yuan median estimate of 22 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

§ Chinese smelters agreed to a 37 percent cut in fees they charged to process metals last year because of competition among themselves and from India. Jiangxi Copper, which needs to buy almost 80 percent of its concentrates, and competitors agreed to a further cut in fees this year.

§ Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest producer of non-ferrous metals, plans to shut one of its three copper smelters for maintenance work that may last 40 days.The 180,000-metric ton smelter may be closed in the last week of April or early May, according to a company executive, who declined to be identified, citing internal policy.

§ Japan's output of copper and copper alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, rose 0.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the first increase in 13 months, according to an industry group.

§ Output rose to 85,050 metric tons from 84,678 tons, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said in a faxed statement today, citing preliminary data.

§ Demand for copper alloy products in car and semiconductor manufacturing was recovering, while demand from air conditioner makers and home builders remained weak, according to the group. The association issued preliminary data for output in February and final figures for output, shipments and inventories in January.

§ National Aluminium Co., India's biggest alumina maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month.The shutdown will reduce the monthly output by one- third, said. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminum-making material annually.

§ Zinc gained the most in a month as some investors deemed recent decline as overdone amid signs of steady demand in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. Copper, nickel and aluminum also increased.

§ China last month remained a net importer of zinc, according to customs figures yesterday, purchasing 18,050 tons of the metal used to galvanize steel. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses fell for the first time in six weeks, according to a report Friday. Cash zinc in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest spot market, rose as much as 3.7 percent today, following an 8.7 percent loss last week. The London Metal Exchange, closed since March 21 for the Easter holidays, re-opened today. LME zinc fell 13 percentlast week.



Major Economic Data:

§ A widely watched index of U.S. home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, its steepest drop since data for the indicator was first collected in 1987.The decline reported Tuesday in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months. The index tracks the prices of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.

§ Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed.

Major Headline:

§ Copper gained for the second straight day in New York as bank stocks led a rebound in global equities, easing concern that financial-market turmoil would roil metals and other raw materials.

§ Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, said full-year profit fell 13 percent after processing fees dropped. Net income declined to 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million), or 1.4 yuan a share last year, the Guixi, Jiangxi province-based company said in a statement today. The profit compares with the 4.5 billion yuan median estimate of 22 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

§ Chinese smelters agreed to a 37 percent cut in fees they charged to process metals last year because of competition among themselves and from India. Jiangxi Copper, which needs to buy almost 80 percent of its concentrates, and competitors agreed to a further cut in fees this year.

§ Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest producer of non-ferrous metals, plans to shut one of its three copper smelters for maintenance work that may last 40 days.The 180,000-metric ton smelter may be closed in the last week of April or early May, according to a company executive, who declined to be identified, citing internal policy.

§ Japan's output of copper and copper alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, rose 0.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the first increase in 13 months, according to an industry group.

§ Output rose to 85,050 metric tons from 84,678 tons, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said in a faxed statement today, citing preliminary data.

§ Demand for copper alloy products in car and semiconductor manufacturing was recovering, while demand from air conditioner makers and home builders remained weak, according to the group. The association issued preliminary data for output in February and final figures for output, shipments and inventories in January.

§ National Aluminium Co., India's biggest alumina maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month.The shutdown will reduce the monthly output by one- third, said. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminum-making material annually.

§ Zinc gained the most in a month as some investors deemed recent decline as overdone amid signs of steady demand in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. Copper, nickel and aluminum also increased.

§ China last month remained a net importer of zinc, according to customs figures yesterday, purchasing 18,050 tons of the metal used to galvanize steel. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses fell for the first time in six weeks, according to a report Friday. Cash zinc in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest spot market, rose as much as 3.7 percent today, following an 8.7 percent loss last week. The London Metal Exchange, closed since March 21 for the Easter holidays, re-opened today. LME zinc fell 13 percentlast week.

LME Inventory update (25 March, 2008)

LONDON METAL EXCHANGE STOCKS

METAL


LAST


NET


PREV

COPPER


120175


-1700


121875

ALUM.


1035350


1475


1033875

ZINC


122600


450


122150

NICKEL


47622


-180


47802

LEAD


46950


225


46725

TIN


9225


-225


9450



MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 323.50 Target 328 and 332 Stop loss 318.50



MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations -MCX Zinc March: Sell at 94 Target 93 and 90 Stop loss at 95.50



MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1165 Target 1195 and 1215 Stop loss at 1151

MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 110.50 Target 100.30 and 99.10 Stop loss 111.70

MCXARUN
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