GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It’s a central bank week. We have the Federal reserve meeting, the European central bank, and the bank of England. I do not expect any surprises from them except soothing comments to stabilize the financial markets. The crude oil-US dollar and precious metals relationship will continue this week too. Crude oil rose as a storm Edouard threatened U.S. output in the Gulf of Mexico and Israel and U.S. officials sought extra sanctions against Iran. Crude oil will command a hurricane premium for the whole of August and early September. (Although the hurricane season lasts until November). Crude oil will fall as and when storm risk fades.

Iran didn't respond by an August 2 deadline to an offer from the U.S., Russia, China, France, the U.K. and Germany of economic and diplomatic incentives in exchange for the suspension of its uranium-enrichment program. Iranian risk will continue right throughout the year until there is an armed attack on Iranian soil. The US may not attack Iran and instead may support Israel to attack Iran. This way it will avoid internal resentment on war.

It will be a technical trade this week. Economic numbers may not have impact on commodity price movement. Base metals, one should look for a bottom and invest in October or December futures. Nickel and Zinc should form a bottom soon. The Olympics is beginning this week and trading volumes will not be affected during the events.

SILVER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE

Failure of silver to break $1830 and $1930 in August will result in a fall to $1626 and $1554.


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