comex gold outlook

Gold edged higher yesterday as the dollar weakened against the major currencies and oil price inched up above $125 a barrel in NYMEX.

International spot gold traded in the range $922.35 - $932.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $929.90 ($928.70).

Federal Reserve Board Governor Frederic Mishkin said Monday that recent adverse shocks to the economy - including the financial market turmoil and the sharp increase in the price of oil - may affect the economy for longer than the next three years.

Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Saturday. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.

However worries remained as two more US banks were shut down by federal regulators late Friday, bringing the number of bank failures so far this year to seven.

Dollar had drifted lower on Friday after a report from Commerce Department showed US new home sales in US fell 0.6 % in June, the second straight monthly decline, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000.

Among US data released on Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 34,000 to stand at 406,000 for the week ended July 19, according to the US Labor Department.

The National Association of Realtors reported a 2.6% fall in US existing home sales in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million, the lowest level in 10 years.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.

Also according to the release by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight on Tuesday, US home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May. For the 12 months ending in May, the prices fell 4.8 percent.

The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.

Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.

The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.

The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.

Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)

Recovery expected above $936.60. Resistances are $943, $950, $959; supports $923, $915, $908.

Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $923.10 – $933.00 and closed at $931.20 ($929.60).

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 932; bearish below $ 927

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