energy intraday

Oil prices rose Monday on disappointment over Saudi Arabia's modest production increase and concerns that output from Nigeria will decline. Retail gas prices, meanwhile, inched lower overnight, but appear unlikely to change much as long as oil prices remain stuck in their recent trading range.

Saudi Arabia said Sunday at a meeting of oil producing and consuming nations that it would turn out more crude oil this year if the market needs it. The kingdom said it would add 200,000 barrels per day in July to a 300,000 barrel per day production increase it first announced in May, raising total daily output to 9.7 million barrels.

Nigeria continues to have problems keeping its oil production safe. Late last week, a 120,000 barrel per day Chevron plant was closed after its pipelines were attacked. Earlier last week, a 200,000 barrel per day Shell facility was closed.

Barron's ran an article over the weekend saying that crude oil could fall to $100 per barrel by the end of the year. What would it take for that to happen? Saudi Arabia's announced production increase, slower world demand, and firmer U.S. interest rates to stop the flow of investors bailing on the dollar.

Speculators became the largest players in oil futures markets, nearly doubling their share in the past eight years as prices rose to records, in a ``radical shift'' for the market, according to a congressional committee. In January 2000, speculators controlled 37 percent of contracts to buy West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the NYMEX, with the rest held by physical hedgers, including refiners and airlines that need to hedge against delivered fuel costs. By this April, speculators controlled 71 percent of the contracts, according to data provided to the House Energy and Commerce Committee by the CFTC.

Colombia's main oil pipeline was closed after guerrilla attack on Monday, after a dynamite attack on Saturday by the Farc guerrilla movement, the military authorities said. Some 100,000 barrels per day of crude oil is transported along the 780 kilometer pipeline, which is located in the Tibu area, 650 km northeast of Bogota. The explosive was detonated by remote control by a group of rebels of the Farc (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia).


Natural gas in New York advanced amid speculation a forecast for warmer weather would increase demand. High temperatures, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, the regions of the biggest gas consumption, typically spur more electricity generation from gas-fired power plants to run air conditioners.

MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:

Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 5975 level. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 6050 and 6160 If market sustains below 5865 can see a further fall towards 5790 and 5680

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5832 Target 5895 and 5970 Stoploss 5780

MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 576 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 579 and 586 If market sustains below 569 can see a further fall towards 566 and 559

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 565 Target 569 and 574 Stop loss at 561

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