GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It’s just a crude oil story for precious metals. Nickel got the bashing among the base metals on lack of buyers and lower stop losses getting triggered. Zinc and lead are also trading with a softer bias on expectation that the Chinese earthquake will not prevent a decrease in global surplus. Copper traders are remaining on the sidelines. If and when there is a sustained Chinese demand, copper will zoom quickly and near $9000 (LME). Until Chinese demand does not come up, copper will trade with find sellers on rise. In the short term LME copper has to fall below $7950 for a bear zone.

The US dollar weakened against almost all the major currencies as stronger economic data from around the world highlighted the underperformance of the US economy. Australian, German, Canadian and New Zealand economic data all surprised to the upside. Federal Reserve officials slashed their forecasts for growth this year and raised projections for inflation as minutes revealed growing tension between the two objectives. Most policymakers viewed the decision to cut interest rates last month as a “close call”, the minutes said. Lagging effects of higher crude oil prices could further slowdown the US economy which can result in Fed cut interest rates once again. In the short term the Fed may wait and watch till September before making the next move, i.e., a hike or a cut. Till then the interest rate pause will continue.

Another job firing news, this time from American airlines. American said that it would eliminate flights, cut thousands of jobs and charge most passengers $15 to check a single piece of luggage, as surging oil prices exacerbated the crisis in the US airline industry. The number of employees is yet to be announced. If the new job cuts/firing in the US economy continues, we may see another round of US dollar bashing with the possibility of Euro/Usd trying to break 1.60. For the US dollar to gain, the crude oil price needs to halt its gains and consolidate for a fortnight.

COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $382.8

Intra day as long as copper holds $369 downside will be limited and copper will target $383 and $397.


MCXARUN
9994500540