GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

US senators are now trying to bail out the US consumer drenched in housing woes. Leaders of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee had reached a deal on legislation to create a multibillion-dollar mortgage rescue fund and a new regulator for housing finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The plan would enable the Federal Housing Administration to guarantee billions of dollars in refinanced mortgages for homeowners whose properties have fallen in value since they took out their loans. The rescue plan would give a federal guarantee to failing mortgages once the lender erased at least 15 percent of the original loan amount, an offer that might appeal to mortgage investors who have seen foreclosures spike and home values sink over the past 12 months. This move is just a cover up of past failed measures. It remains to be seen whether it reaches the needy or fund managers stifle away with the funds, just like we have in India on most government sponsored schemes. Short term gains for the US economy and long term pains as it will create yet another bubble over the coming years.

Silver has disappointed. I am more of a silver bull than a gold bull and silver’s under performance will prevent volumes from picking up. But do not write off silver as it is a sleeping dragon. Silver rises very swiftly and also falls very swiftly. The year to date (YTD) return on silver is 14.99% as compared to 9.19% in gold. Silver is a great long term investment but volatility will rise as it gets caught between base metals and precious metals. Long term silver is still a better bet than gold and is a great investment on any five to ten percent dips from the current prices.

Nickel has disappointed among the base metals. There are more long positions than short in Nickel. LME Nickel (3 months) has to hold $25006 in the short term to prevent a fall to $23211 and below. Technically it is highly oversold. Short term the fundamental picture is still negative for nickel as demand remains week.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil has to hold $122.90 on closing basis to be in bullish zone else a fall back to $119.60 and $116.20. Resistance at $128.30 and $130.90.

MCXARUN
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