GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The US dollar has weakened against the yen but gained against the sterling last week. The US dollar was mixed against the euro as it gained but later recouped some of the losses. US retail sales and consumer prices index numbers will be the key for the weekly trend of the US dollar. Over the next few weeks the European Central Bank will be caught between the devil and the deep sea. The devil is inflation while the deep sea is growth. Eurozone growth should slowdown (even though marginal) over the coming months and the ECB will be under pressure to cut interest rates from member nations. It’s better to remain on the sidelines on the US dollar this week. Technically the US dollar has room for more gains in the short term.

Among the base metals lead continues to fall showing no signs of revival. Copper has been the driver for all the base metals. If copper follows the fall in zinc, lead and other base metals will fall at double the pace. In my view copper is safest to trade among the base metals while zinc and lead are for the high risk high return investor. Nickel is another great investment after copper among the base metals as it generally moves in one direction. Technically LME lead (3 months) falls below $2280 then $2100 and $1980 are the key supports. Lead is in a highly oversold zone.

Crude oil prices will once again be the key for global economy. It’s just a momentum market backed without any fundamentals. As long as the momentum continues crude oil will rise and will find investors on dips. But some day surely crude oil will go gold’s way. Gold has fallen from $1028 to $845. Gold fell only when retail investors converted their short positions into long positions and incurred a double loss. At the moment in my view retail investors are holding their short positions. Once they exit and convert into longs/start buying on dips, crude oil’s top will be formed sooner than later.

GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE

Gold is in a neutral zone and needs to break $906-$914 this week zone else it will fall to $859.10 and $842.80.

MCXARUN
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