energy intraday

Energy
21 May 2008 10:40:20

Major Headlines:

Oil surged to a fresh all-time high at $129.29 a barrel in New York as fresh supply concerns combined with Opec's reluctance to increase output to push prices upwards.



A 24-hour strike at the French port of Fos-Lavera near Marseille, Europe's second biggest oil hub, is also contributing to fears of market tightness, with reports of five oil tankers unable to enter the harbor



Credit Suisse Tuesday raised its average oil price forecast for 2008 to $120 a barrel from $91 a barrel. The investment bank also upped its average price forecast for 2009 to $110 a barrel, with prices expected to remain above $100 a barrel in the long-term due to the rising cost of production and limited supply growth

Surging diesel demand in China has heightened supply fears, as the world's second largest energy consumer moves to ensure adequate supplies for earthquake relief efforts in Sichuan province and this summer's Olympic games.

Despite record prices, the OPEC has maintained that markets remain well supplied, with the cartel's President Chakib Khelil yesterday indicating the group was unlikely to increase output at it's next meeting in September.

While Saudi Arabia -- the cartel's dominant member -- has boosted oil output by 300,000 barrels per day to meet demand and compensate for other producers’ lower output, and the market appeared to be overlooking this for now as the supply picture remains unclear. Militant action in Opec member Nigeria



Natural gas in New York advanced as crude oil rose to a record and the dollar fell against the euro, Returns from investing in commodities, especially energy, have surged this year as investors sought alternatives to stocks. Natural gas has gained 49 percent and oil is 34 percent higher



Egypt plans to raise natural-gas export prices in line with the increase in global energy prices, the nation's oil minister said. Egypt, Africa's second-biggest gas producer behind Algeria, sells the fuel in Spain, France, Italy and the U.K


MCX Crude Oil June (Daily Chart)


Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5513 levels. If market reaches 5513may see prices to take further upside towards 5562 and 5643 however if it holds back below 5383 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5302and5253

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5410 Target 5480 and 5540 Stop loss 5375





MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 495.60 levels. If market breaches 495.60may see prices to take further upside towards 503.80and 515.60 however if it holds back below 475.60 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 463.80 and 455.60

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 484 Target 487 and 495 Stop loss at 480

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