energy intraday

Energy
07 May 2008 10:22:26

Major Headlines:

The oil-service sector rose for a third consecutive session Tuesday after crude futures continued their upward momentum, made a record high of above $122.50 level for the first time amid heightened supply worries and dollar softness.

The dollar weakened against the euro on Tuesday, attracting investors to oil and other commodities viewed as hedges against inflation. Also, a falling dollar makes oil less expensive to investors overseas. A series of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts starting last year weakened the dollar considerably against foreign currencies, and analysts blame the dollar's protracted decline for oil's sharp rise this spring.

Oil prices surged to set new record highs on both sides of the Atlantic after the dollar gave up more of its recent gains, encouraging more investors into a market already spooked by supply fears out of Nigeria and Iran.

Supply outages or potential threats to supply emerged in Iran and Nigeria over the weekend and from Iraq on Monday; events in all three nations have caused prices to spike many times in recent months.

In Iraq, Kurdish rebels warned they could launch suicide attacks against American interests to punish the U.S. for sharing intelligence with Turkey after Turkey bombed rebel bases in Iraq on Friday. In Nigeria, a Royal Dutch Shell PLC spokesman said attackers hit an oil facility belonging to Shell's joint venture in southern Nigeria and that some oil production has been shut down. And Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said his country would not bend to international pressure and give up its nuclear program.

Natural gas futures rose Tuesday on the back of higher physical gas prices, rising crude oil prices and concerns about supplies this summer and fall.

Forecasters were calling for chillier-than-normal weather this week in the U.S. Midwest, with highs in Chicago dipping into the 50s Thursday, Temperatures in New York are seen reaching into the 70s during the day, dropping to the high 50s overnight

The gas market has been keeping a close eye on a continuing outage since April 8 at the giant U.S. Gulf Coast natural gas platform Independence Hub. Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), which operates the pipeline that connects the platform to shore, has said operations were likely to restart by May 15. Market participants said the outage is supporting gas prices, which could strengthen further if Independence doesn't return to service by mid-month.





MCX Crude Oil May

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4841 levels. If market breaches 4841 may see prices to take further upside towards 4993and 4986however if it holds back below 4696 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4703 and 4551

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4930 Target 4995 and 5065 Stop loss 4875



MCX Natural gas May

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 464.10 levels. If market breaches 464.10 may see prices to take further upside towards 470.20 and 476.00 however if it holds back below 452.20 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 446.40 and 440.30

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 455 Target 465 and 472 Stop loss at 448


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