Thursday, April 17, 2008

outlook

June gold closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above last Friday's high crossing at 943.40 thereby renewing this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 960.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 906.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 952.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 960.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 927.20. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 917.50.
May silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extends last week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last week's high crossing at 18.440 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this spring's decline, the 62% retracement level crossing at 15.438 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 18.550 then the reaction high crossing at 18.685. First support is Monday's low crossing at 17.260 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.

May copper closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 392.21. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 383.81 are needed to confirm that a double top with March's high has been posted. Closes above March's high crossing at 402.40 could prove to be a bull trap due to the overbought condition of the market. First resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 416.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 383.81. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 370.90.

May crude oil posted a new all-time high on Wednesday as it extended this month's rally into uncharted territory. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 106.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 115.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 109.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.61.
May heating oil posted a new high close on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This month's rally into uncharted territory makes upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 331.00. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 332.04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 314.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.83.

May Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday and spiked above March's high crossing at 10.304 as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 11.505 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.748 would confirm that a double top with March's high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 10.489 then monthly resistance crossing at 11.505. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.896. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.748.

MCXARUN
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