Friday, April 4, 2008

OUTLOOK

June gold closed higher due to short covering on Thursday and above the 38% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 897.80. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level crossing at 854.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 956.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 925.00. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 946.60. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 854.30.
May silver closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short-
term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.760 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. If May extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level crossing at 15.438 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.541 then the 38% retracement level crossing at 17.731. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 16.300 then the 62% retracement level crossing at 15.438.

May copper closed higher on Thursday as it extends Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 402.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 377.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 393.25. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 378.30. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 370.90.

May crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 98.65 is the next downside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing 98.65 would renew this month's decline and could lead to a test of the 38% retracement level of the 2007-
2008-rally crossing at 94.17. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.96. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 106.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 99.55. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 98.65.

May Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.633 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 9.117 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 10.210 would renew the rally off March's low while opening the door for a possible test of the contract high crossing at 10.365 later this spring. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.631 then Monday's high crossing at 10.210. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 9.386. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 9.117.

MCXARUN
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