energy intraday

Major Headline:

- Oil initially plunged below $100 on a firmer dollar, as investors sold commodities across the board on persistent fears U.S. demand will slow and as worries over Iraqi supply eased. But market bounced back above $101 on small short covering.

- The euro continued to slip against the dollar after figures earlier showed a slump in German retail sales, while market players awaited the release of the latest U.S. ISM manufacturing index this afternoon. A stronger dollar limited the appeal of dollar-priced commodities. Gold and base metals were also down.

- Meanwhile, a weekly U.S. report due tomorrow is expected to show gasoline demand fell and crude stocks rose.

- Iraq's southern oilfields will return to normal production volumes today after losing 150,000 barrels a day over the last three days because of power outages caused by clashes between the army and Shiite militants.

- Exports from the offshore Basra loading terminal in the Persian Gulf were unaffected by the output decline, an oil ministry official said today in a telephone interview from Baghdad. He declined to be identified for security reasons. Crude used for the 150,000 barrel-a-day Basra refinery, which was offline because of the power shortages caused by the fighting, was redirected for exports at the terminal, the official said.

- Fighting erupted in Basra last week between Iraqi forces and militants loyal to Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Oil flows through a 100,000 barrel-a-day pipeline were disrupted on March 27 because of a damage caused by an explosive device. This pipeline will be repaired today, the official said, helping boost output.

- The two main pipelines in the network were unaffected by the explosion and fire. The system typically carries about 1.5 million barrels a day of Iraqi crude to the shipping terminal on the Persian Gulf.

- Iraq exported 80 percent of its oil to international markets from its southern Basra terminal in February, according to data from the Iraqi Oil Ministry's Web site. Basra oil exports averaged 1.54 million barrels a day last month, compared with 1.56 million barrels a day in January.

MCX Crude Oil April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Sell at 4065 Target 3980 and 3920 Stop loss 4092

MCX Natural gas April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 394 Target 410 and 413 Stop loss 390

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