GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It’s the US dollar story for precious metals, base metals and energies. US dollar gains, the invincible crude oil also falls. The big question is whether the US dollar has bottomed out against the major’s. In my view, we need to wait and watch for the Fed meeting and the April payrolls next week. If and only if both of them confirm that the US economy will recover, albeit at a snails pace over the coming months that the US will continue to gain else gains on the greenback will be used as an opportunity to go short. Growth differentials between US and other nations will play a key role for the US dollar over the next few months. The lagging effects of higher food and energy prices will be felt globally over the next few months which will set the tone for the US dollar against emerging market currencies.

Commodity markets are very volatile. If one trades against the trend, all his stop losses get triggered. However the volatility has followed the medium term technical charts. Sometimes short term technical charts give reverse trading signals. As and when short covering comes, commodities will gain. The short term technical picture is still negative.

COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0

If copper fails to break $404 next week then a fall to $378 and $354 is in the cards. Copper is unfazed by Chile mine worker strike news.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $115.90.

A close below $116.20 will result in $114.10 and $111.80. Resistance at $118.40 and $120.20

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