energy intraday

Major Headline:

· Crude oil and gasoline fell from records on signs that high prices and a slowing economy will curb U.S. fuel consumption. The International Monetary Fund said this week there's a 25 percent chance of a world recession. Gasoline use may drop this summer, the EIA said April 7. In New York Crude oil rose to a record $112.21 a barrel on April 9 after the U.S. reported an unexpected decline in inventories.

· Commodity prices are going the wrong way, said Simon Johnson, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, in an interview on Bloomberg yesterday. Whenever global growth slows down, you'd expect commodity prices to fall. If it's a substantial global slowdown, commodity prices would fall somewhere in the order of 30 percent.

· Current oil supply is sufficient to meet the needs of the global market, while crude inventories are rebuilding, and there are not enough buyers of oil to justify an increase in oil production, despite prices remaining near record levels on both sides of the Atlantic. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters at an international oil conference yesterday

· Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised the lower end of its crude price forecast for this spring to $98.80 a barrel from $90 barrel, the bank also raised the upper limit for its price expectations in the second half of the year, estimating that oil may climb as high as $115 a barrel on the WTI crude oil instead of $105

· The weak dollar and demand from speculators are keeping the price high; fundamentally, it isn't justified. Stockpiles are above the five-year-average in almost all product categories. We are expecting the price to stay at $90 to $110 in the short term and demand from China and India will remain strong

· OPEC's daily shipments of crude will increase 0.7 percent in this month and forthcoming April 20-22 International Energy Forum in Rome will be an occasion for members to discuss the oil market situation directly with consuming nations



· OPEC shouldn't produce more oil because the market is already well supplied, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said. The minister, representing the world's biggest oil exporter and the most influential member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, blamed record crude prices above $100 a barrel on the falling value of the U.S. dollar.

· Natural gas rose to the highest in NY more than two years after a government report showed U.S.inventories declined to the lowest since 2005. Supplies last week fell to 1.234 trillion cubic feet, 1.8percent below the five-year average of 1.257 trillion, the Energy Department said yesterday. Stockpiles usually rise in April as heating demand wanes and before use picks up from utilities supplying power for air conditioners

MCX Crude Oil April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a Bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, the market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Sell at 4450 Target 4390 and 4330 Stop loss 4490

MCX Natural gas April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a Bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Sell at 407 Target 403 and 399 Stop loss at 412

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