Basemetals intraday

Major Economic Data:

- Wholesale sales in February surprised economists by falling the largest amount since January 2007, while inventories piled up, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in yet another weak report for the US economy. Sales dropped 0.8 percent, the largest decrease since January 2007 while inventories increased 1.1 percent in the month.

- The Commerce Department also downwardly revised January sales to a 2.3 percent increase and upwardly revised inventories to a 1.3 percent increase. February’s drop in sales was led by automobile and electrical sales, which fell 1.9 percent and 3.8 percent respectively. Furniture sales fell by 4.6 percent, the largest fall since December 2002. Hardware sales also fell significantly, by 3.9 percent, the largest drop since June 2001.

Impact:Data is slightly negative for US Economy and US dollar, which have a negative impact on base metal prices.

Copper

- Copper advanced in London to within less than 1 percent of a record as the weakening dollar boosted demand for commodities as a hedge against further declines in the currency. MCX Copper April also traded bullish following bullion and energy and positive trading at LME/COMEX



China

- This year's 27 percent gain may slow imports into China, the world's largest user of the metal. Imports of refined copper into the country fell 5.8 percent in the first two months from a year earlier, according to the latest customs report. LME-monitored copper stockpiles in South Korea, the nearest exchange warehouse to China, climbed 7 percent this month to 53,750 metric tons, the highest since Feb. 5.

- Purchases of so-called concentrate, or processed ore containing copper, may rise to 5.4 million metric tons from 4.5 million tons in 2007 as China expands in smelting, said Simon Collins, director of Trafigura Trading Shanghai Co., a unit of Trafigura. China would become the world's top buyer, surpassing Japan which bought 5.05 million tons last year.

- China's 11.4 percent economic growth in 2007, the fastest in 13 years, fueled demand for copper and pushed prices to a record $8,820 a ton on the London Metal Exchange on March 6. Investment in cities and highways has spread to the center and west of the world's most populous country, increasing consumption of metals for power, homes, factories and cars.



Mining

- The Mineworkers Union of Zambia and the National Union of Allied Workers have warned the dispute may lead to a strike, the Lusaka-based newspaper said. It didn't say what the unions' demands are.

- Power cuts or blackouts in Chile, the world's largest producing nation of the metal, may push copper above its record, said Allan Trench, head of copper research at consulting company CRU in London. If Chinese demand keeps rising and supplies are disrupted, copper may jump to $10,000 a ton, he said.

- Kansanshi Copper Mine Plc declared a dispute with workers after labor-unions rejected the company's offer to increase wages by 15 percent, The Post reported, citing Len Heyneke, a company official.



Demand

- Rio Tinto Group, the world's third- largest mining company, said global demand for copper will grow 4 percent a year for a decade or more led by sales to China.

- China, the world's biggest copper consumer, may increase imports of ore used to make the metal by 20 percent to a record this year, said Trafigura Beheer BV, the country's top supplier.

- China's expanding economy boosted consumption of metals as the world's most populous nation built more roads, power grids and port facilities. Inadequate mine supplies at home may encourage China to raise ore imports by 20 percent this year, said Trafigura Beheer BV, the country's top supplier.



Supply

- Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, may increase output by 29 percent in three years, Chile's mining minister said. Codelco may boost production to 2.2 million metric tons by 2011 from about 1.7 million tons this year, Mining Minister Santiago Gonzalez, who is also the chairman of the state-run copper producer, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview in Santiago.

MCX Copper (April) Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 354.67 levels. If market breaches 354.67 may see prices to take further upside towards 360.33/368.67 levels. However if it holds back below 346.33 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 340.67, 332.33 and 326.67

Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 347 Target 354, 358 and 365 Stop loss 340.60



Nickel



- MCX Nickel April prices gained following other base metals, bullion and energy. Market was up by almost 2% following LME movement. Crude oil and Gold rose by 2% on weak dollar.

- Merrill Lynch & Co. revised down its nickel forecast by 3.8 percent to $32,466 a ton, and zinc by 7.7 percent to $2,606 a ton, citing rising stockpiles of the metals in London Metals Exchange- registered warehouses during the first quarter. Demand for both metals will improve this year, Merrill said.

- LME Inventory was reduced by 6MT to 52068MT, was not having much impact on Nickel prices.



MCX Nickel (April) Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1218 levels. If market breaches 1218 may see prices to take further upside towards 1247 levels. However if it holds back below 1168 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1147 and 1120



Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Buy at 1170 Target 1205 and 1218 Stop loss at 1162



Zinc

- MCX Zinc April traded positive following other base metals, Bullion and energy prices.

- Zinc stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose to the highest in 17 months. Zinc inventory jumped 1,825 metric tons, or 1.5 percent, to 127,250 tons, the LME said today in a daily report, the highest since Oct. 17, 2006.

- Aluminium, copper and gold price forecasts for this year were raised by Merrill Lynch & Co. because of a weakening dollar and supply constraints. The bank revised down its Zinc forecast by 7.7 percent to $2,606 a ton, citing rising stockpiles of the metals in London Metals Exchange- registered warehouses during the first quarter. Demand for both metals will improve this year, Merrill said.



MCX Zinc (April) Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 95.03 levels. If market breaches 95.03 may see prices to take further upside towards 96.07/97.33 levels. However if it holds back below 93.77 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 92.73, 91.47 and 90.43

Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Buy at 94 Target 96 and 98 Stop loss at 93.77



Aluminium

- MCX Aluminium April remains slightly high following other base metals, bullion and energy prices gained by 4% following LME prices. .

- Aluminium, copper and gold price forecasts for this year were raised by Merrill Lynch & Co. because of a weakening dollar and supply constraints. Aluminium will average $2,757 a metric ton in 2008, 6.6 percent higher than the bank's previous estimate, Merrill analysts including Daniel Hynes in London wrote in a report published yesterday. Merrill raised its gold forecast to $987 an ounce, a 12 percent increase.

- Dubai Aluminium Co., a United Arab Emirates aluminium producer that's building the world's largest smelter in Abu Dhabi, said 2007 profit rose 35 percent after it raised production capacity.Profit for the year rose to 1.9 billion dirhams ($520 million) from 1.4 billion dirhams in 2006, the company said in an e-mailed statement today. The government-owned company said it raised production almost 13 percent in 2007 to 890,000 tons.

- China's state-owned aluminum giant Chinalco said Wednesday it is looking to buy more mining assets, especially copper, at a time when prices for the red metal are high and demand is surging.



MCX Aluminium (April) Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 123 levels. If market breaches 123, it may see prices to take further upside towards 125/128 levels. However if it holds back below 118 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 115 and 113

Recommendations -MCX Aluminium April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123, 125 and 128 Stop loss at 115

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