Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Copper Futures

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched. Nevertheless, the 50-Day new high here may result in additional bullish momentum.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days. Nevertheless, the 50-Day new high here may result in additional bullish momentum.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 74.40). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 74.40 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

4.0560 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.9670 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.9670 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.9515 - High
3.9400 - Last Price
3.9110 - Low
3.9078 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.8568 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.8252 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.6640 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.5818 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.4582 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
3.3791 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3787 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3036 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2590 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.9505 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
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