Monday, February 18, 2008

outlook

April gold closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this week's decline, last week's low crossing at 888.40 is the next downside target. Closes above
Monday's high crossing at 931.00 are needed to renew the rally off last week's low. First resistance is Monday's high crossing
at 931.00 then January's high crossing at 942.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 899.50. Second support is last
week's low crossing at 888.40.

March silver closed lower on Friday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near.
Closes below last week's low crossing at 16.230 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends
this week's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 17.870 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at
17.650 then monthly resistance crossing at 17.870. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.003 then the 20-
day moving average crossing at 16.766.

March copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline but remains
below the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 352.60. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top
might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 344.65 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level crossing at 363.80 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Monday's high crossing at 359.90. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 363.80. First
support is Thursday's low crossing at 345.60. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 344.65.

March crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. Profit taking tempered some of today's gains and the
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at
99.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.91 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 96.67. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 99.77. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.91.

March Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but not before testing November's
high crossing at 8.830. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought and have turned neutral hinting that a double top with November's high might be forming. If March extends this
month's rally, July's high crossing at 8.990 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 8.330 would
confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.847 then July's high crossing at 8.990.
First support is Monday's gap crossing at 8.330. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.299.

MCXARUN
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