energy

Major Headline:

· Crude oil fell to trade around $87.75 a barrel in New York on speculation a government report tomorrow will show U.S. supplies rose for a fourth week as refiners shut plants for maintenance before summer.
· MCX Crude Oil Feb fell almost by 3% and traded weak over all following international trend. MCX natural gas was trading in green and closed near 312.
· Inventories in the world's largest oil consumer probably gained 2.2 million barrels last week as refining rates dropped to a 22-month low, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts. U.S. share prices fell yesterday for the first time in three days after analysts warned a recession may increase loan defaults for banks and finance houses.
· The Houston Ship Channel, which serves the largest U.S. petroleum port, was closed to tanker traffic and other vessels because of fog. Traffic was halted at 6:10 p.m. local time on Feb. 3, reopened around midday Feb. 4, and shut again yesterday at 4 p.m., a Houston Pilots Association dispatcher said by telephone.
· StatoilHydro ASA, Norway's biggest oil producer, resumed oil and gas production at its Njord A field in the Norwegian Sea today after a fire in a gas turbine yesterday halted output. The Njord field produces 20,000 barrels of oil a day and exports 6 million standard cubic meters of gas a day.
· The Energy Department's weekly inventory report will probably show gasoline stockpiles gained 1.7 million barrels, according to the analyst survey, the 13th weekly increase.
· The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last week left its production target unchanged, citing the prospect of slowing global demand growth and rising oil and fuel stockpiles.
· The group, which is forecasting a 1.5 million-barrel-a-day reduction in demand in the second quarter, will review production again on March 5.
· For a third day, the New York crude oil futures contract closest to delivery is less expensive than the price of some contracts for later delivery. This pattern, which arose Feb. 1 for the first time since December, encourages companies to build up stockpiles.


Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Sell at 3490-95 for the target of 3455 and 3422 with stop loss at 3533


MCX Natural gas Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas sell at 316/317 stoploss 320 target 313.30 and 308.50

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