Energy intraday

· MCX Crude oil March traded near Rs. 3996 as days high following international energy prices, US data also supported the movement.

· NYMEX crude managed to trade above $100, Natural Gas also following higher energy prices. but market is still waiting for inventory data to be released today.

· Oil steadied as players weighed cold weather in the US and Europe and ongoing worries over geopolitical tensions in key producing countries against expectations of further gains in US crude oil inventories. In addition, analysts said the the profit-taking spree seen in earlier trades had run out of steam as the market remains nervous ahead of the OPEC cartel's production meeting in Vienna on March 5.

· Markets expect US inventory data will show crude stocks rose again last week, meaning there is a risk that oil could trend lower as supply side worries wane slightly. On the other hand, however, with the current cold snap in the US and Europe, markets could get uneasy should tomorrow's data also show further falls in distillates, as expected.

· All the same, it is underpinning prices for now, while concerns over the security of supplies from Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela have not yet gone away.

· The UN Security Council is expected to pass a resolution on Friday on possible stricter sanctions against Iran because it claims it has not been forthcoming over the aims of its nuclear programme.

· Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, has warned of "decisive reciprocal measures" should the UN impose further sanctions, sparking fears it plans to withhold oil sales.

· Meanwhile in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, militant attacks against the oil industry could escalate, especially if the courts rule that last year's presidential elections were flawed.

· Elsewhere, there are fears over the security of supplies from Iraq, where Turkey last week launched a military incursion into the oil-rich north in a bid to flush out Kurdish separatist rebels. And in Venezuela, the spat with Exxon-Mobil over the nationalisation of oil projects continues, with the South American country still withholding oil sales from the US oil giant.



MCX Crude Oil March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3920-30 for the target of 4040 and 4100 with stop loss at 3885

MCX Natural gas March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

Natural gas March:

MCXARUN
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