GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Nothing Official about precious metals and energies sharp rise after the Bank of England interest rate cut. I am more concerned about the plunge in base metals particularly lead, which fell nearly six percent. There was a technical breakdown in LME Lead 3 month, which resulted in the same closing at $2680. LME Lead 3 month has to hold $2356 else more losses will come. The fall prompted investors to exit lead and subsequent built in short positions. Technically lead is highly oversold but there could be more losses before a consolidation and next leg higher. Year to date returns in lead is still the highest among all the base metals at nearly forty percent so the fall in lead prices is nothing but year-end profit taking.

I will remember 2007 more for the fall in base metals and rise in crude oil prices. At the beginning of the year crude oil and copper prices plunged. Thereafter in towards the close of May Nickel prices plunged. From October and so far in December almost all the base metals fell but Zinc and Lead are the attractions. Base metals trading in new India is growing day by day. I find more and more investors preferring to trade in base metals in India than gold and silver, as they are a source of very high risk and very high return. Even I like to trade in base metals for intra day. I prefer gold and silver for investment purpose, which if invested at the right time gives maximum return. Base metals trading will only rise in India over the next few years. But once again high volatility in base metals is here to stay and one should determine his risk appetite before going long.

GOLD -- FEBRUARY FUTURE

Only a break of $818.30 will result in gains to $835.50 and $855. On the lower side as long as $797.90 and $790.30 are holding downside will be limited.