Energy

On MCX, crude oil contract for Jan. delivery has been trading at Rs.3, 640-Rs. 3680 Range per barrel (NYMEX crude oil $92.50 – $93.80per barrel) with a decline. Trading on New York Mercantile Exchange closed early on Monday today and will fully closed on Tuesday Christmas holiday.

Crude oil on MCX noted jerky trade but held mostly in the red zone on Monday after registering a 4.1% leap in previous four trading sessions following which it closed on Saturday at highest price since Nov.27.

Nymex crude noted mixed trade amid mild trade volumes in the electronic trade session today after registering a over $2 rise on Friday following which it settled at the highest price since Dec.12. Thin trade volumes exacerbate price movements.

Seasonal temperatures are likely to cover the eastern half of the U.S. starting Dec. 23 and remain through Dec. 27, when above-normal temperatures will develop, MDA Federal Inc.'s EarthSat Energy Weather said in a 10-day outlook on Dec. 21.

Daily deliveries of crude oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, responsible for 40 percent of world supplies, will decline 0.4 percent to 24.33 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 5, the first decline in OPEC shipments since August, consultant Oil Movements predicted.

MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are turning bearish but not at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3655-3660 for target of 3730 and 3765 with stop loss below 3620

MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are turning bearish but not at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 280-85 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 270