18 June 2008 09:48:24
MCX Copper dropped to a low of 342.20 following heavy inventory data at LME and a fall in bullion and energy market. Copper closed at 344.45 with a loss of Rs. 1.15 per kg, registered days high near 348.25
The blockade of a highway giving access to a Southern Copper Corp. mine in Peru, a major copper producer, also pushed prices higher. But further increases in copper prices could be limited as a seasonal weakening in demand is coming.
Copper fell for the first time in three sessions as sliding energy prices curbed demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation.
Protesters in Peru battled police and blocked roads for seventh day yesterday in a bid to stop legislation that seeks to cut mining-tax income for local governments, a mining union official said. The protests have prevented workers from reaching operations owned by Southern Copper Corp.
Copper inventories at LME, increased by 1500 MT to 123550 MT.
International Analysis: A restrained demand picture is likely to hinder LME copper prices from advancing back up to $8,500 a metric ton. Expects market surpluses in '08 and '09, with next year's surplus likely to be particularly large. Traders would be very skeptical about the sustainability of the current move higher, and would not be surprised to see an eventual decline back to the mid to high $7,000/ton range.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 347.7 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 351.0 and 353.8, If market sustains below 345.0 can see a further fall towards 341.7 and 338.9
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 344 Target 347 and 349 SL 341.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Federal regulators said that they would place stricter limits on foreign exchanges that trade American oil as concerns continue to grow about the role of speculation in rising fuel prices. Some lawmakers said the move was long overdue. Under the new agreement, foreign officials also will share daily trading data with American authorities and report any violations. Previously they shared data on a weekly basis.
The U.S. commodity futures regulator said that ICE Futures Europe has agreed to make permanent position and accountability limits for some of its U.S.-traded crude contracts, subjecting itself to the same regulatory oversight as its New York based counterpart. Following intense scrutiny and censure by Congress over skyrocketing oil prices, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission also said it would require daily large trader reports, and similar position and accountability limits from other foreign exchanges. Specifically, the agreement will require trader reports on positions in the benchmark U.S. crude contract -- the West Texas Intermediate contract -- traded on the ICE Futures exchange. The contract is linked to the WTI contract on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange. ICE has 120 days to implement the new reporting requirements.
This move by the CFTC will not slowdown the investment demand in crude oil. In the short term it may reduce the pace of gains in crude oil. The prime reason for the rise in crude oil prices and commodity prices is lack of alternate investment especially when global equity markets are on the grip of the bears. For the commodity prices to slowdown the pace of rise, new alternate investment avenues should be made available till then the rise will continue. The current commodity bull run is not a bubble. It is backed by solid fundamentals. The only thing which I am concerned about is the pace of rise. The global population is rising every second. Land area is the same, one can use it to build cities, sports and entertainment centres OR grow more crops and other essentials which reduce supply shortages. This is for the global leaders to decide. Till then one should continue to invest in commodities.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
Copper now targets $371 and $377 as long as $358 holds.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60
Only a fall below $130.65 will result in $127.60 and $121.60. On the higher side $138.10-$141.40 is the resistance zone.
MCXARUN
9994500540
The U.S. commodity futures regulator said that ICE Futures Europe has agreed to make permanent position and accountability limits for some of its U.S.-traded crude contracts, subjecting itself to the same regulatory oversight as its New York based counterpart. Following intense scrutiny and censure by Congress over skyrocketing oil prices, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission also said it would require daily large trader reports, and similar position and accountability limits from other foreign exchanges. Specifically, the agreement will require trader reports on positions in the benchmark U.S. crude contract -- the West Texas Intermediate contract -- traded on the ICE Futures exchange. The contract is linked to the WTI contract on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange. ICE has 120 days to implement the new reporting requirements.
This move by the CFTC will not slowdown the investment demand in crude oil. In the short term it may reduce the pace of gains in crude oil. The prime reason for the rise in crude oil prices and commodity prices is lack of alternate investment especially when global equity markets are on the grip of the bears. For the commodity prices to slowdown the pace of rise, new alternate investment avenues should be made available till then the rise will continue. The current commodity bull run is not a bubble. It is backed by solid fundamentals. The only thing which I am concerned about is the pace of rise. The global population is rising every second. Land area is the same, one can use it to build cities, sports and entertainment centres OR grow more crops and other essentials which reduce supply shortages. This is for the global leaders to decide. Till then one should continue to invest in commodities.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
Copper now targets $371 and $377 as long as $358 holds.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60
Only a fall below $130.65 will result in $127.60 and $121.60. On the higher side $138.10-$141.40 is the resistance zone.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Lead supply deficit narrowed to 8 000 t in the first four months of 2008,
MCX Lead June traded negative following Lme movement, closed near 77.15 with minor gains, days low registered near 75.40 and day high registered at 78.50
Traders in China said some lead smelters in Yunnan province have cut production because of the drop in lead prices.
Lead refineries in the region of Shadian, which have an estimated annual output of 300,000-350,000 tons, have reduced production levels by about 40%, they said. The refineries process lead bullion into ingots, but the decline in prices to below $2,000/ton has wiped out their margins as they had bought the bullion when prices were much higher, said a Shanghai-based lead trader.
The lead supply deficit narrowed to 8 000 t in the first four months of 2008, compared a difference of 20 000 t in the same period of 2007, according to the ILZSG's preliminary data. Global lead mine production rose 5,9% year-on-year, to 1,2-million tons, mainly because of increased production in Bolivia and China.
World refined lead metal output was 1.,% higher, thanks to rises in Australia, Canada, China, India, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation. Germany and the Republic of Korea reported production declines.
World demand for refined lead metal nudged upwards by 0,7%, as increases in demand from Brazil, China, Italy, Japan and the Russian Federation marginally exceeded reductions in the Czech Republic, Germany, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan.
China’s net exports of refined lead metal during January to April 2008 amounted to 21 000 t, compared with 75 000 t over the same period in 2007.
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 4025 MT to 83325 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.5 levels. If broken can see further fall to 73.9 and 72.4, If market holds above 77.0 further rally can be seen towards 78.6 and 80.1
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 78 Target 76.5 and 75 SL 79.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Traders in China said some lead smelters in Yunnan province have cut production because of the drop in lead prices.
Lead refineries in the region of Shadian, which have an estimated annual output of 300,000-350,000 tons, have reduced production levels by about 40%, they said. The refineries process lead bullion into ingots, but the decline in prices to below $2,000/ton has wiped out their margins as they had bought the bullion when prices were much higher, said a Shanghai-based lead trader.
The lead supply deficit narrowed to 8 000 t in the first four months of 2008, compared a difference of 20 000 t in the same period of 2007, according to the ILZSG's preliminary data. Global lead mine production rose 5,9% year-on-year, to 1,2-million tons, mainly because of increased production in Bolivia and China.
World refined lead metal output was 1.,% higher, thanks to rises in Australia, Canada, China, India, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation. Germany and the Republic of Korea reported production declines.
World demand for refined lead metal nudged upwards by 0,7%, as increases in demand from Brazil, China, Italy, Japan and the Russian Federation marginally exceeded reductions in the Czech Republic, Germany, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan.
China’s net exports of refined lead metal during January to April 2008 amounted to 21 000 t, compared with 75 000 t over the same period in 2007.
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 4025 MT to 83325 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.5 levels. If broken can see further fall to 73.9 and 72.4, If market holds above 77.0 further rally can be seen towards 78.6 and 80.1
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 78 Target 76.5 and 75 SL 79.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX Zinc under pressuer after release of ILZSG report
MCX Zinc traded bearish on Monday, market registered days low near 79.65, closed at 8035 with loss of 1% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 82.
LME zinc have come under pressure after figures released by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group show a market surplus for zinc and a smaller deficit than the year before for lead, a London broker says. Momentum sellers have jumped on the bandwagon, adding pressure to LME lead.
The global zinc market was in surplus by 78 000 t during the first four months of this year, compared with an oversupply of 43 000 t during the same period of 2007, according to estimates from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG).
Mine output, which increased 9,2% year on year, to 3,8-million tons, was driven primarily by increases in Australia, Bolivia, China, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Peru and the US, the group said.
Lower refined zinc metal output in Finland, France, Mexico and Namibia was more than balanced by increases in India, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Netherlands, Peru and the US, resulting in a rise in global production of 1,5%, to 3,76-million tons for the four months.
However, despite a sharp reduction in European demand of 7,5%, and falls in Japan and the Republic of Korea, global usage of refined zinc metal increased by 0,6%, mainly thanks to growth in demand from China.
China was a net importer of refined zinc metal over the first four months of 2008, with imports of 4 000 t, compared with net exports of 119 000 t over the first four months of 2007.
Prices for zinc, which is used to galvanise steel, have fallen 20% this year, as production levels outpace demand.
Zinc inventories at LME, decreased by 300 MT to 143975 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 79.3 levels. If broken can see further fall to 78.3 and 77.0, If market holds above 80.7 further rally can be seen towards 81.7 and 83.0
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 81 Target 79.50 and 78 SL 82.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
LME zinc have come under pressure after figures released by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group show a market surplus for zinc and a smaller deficit than the year before for lead, a London broker says. Momentum sellers have jumped on the bandwagon, adding pressure to LME lead.
The global zinc market was in surplus by 78 000 t during the first four months of this year, compared with an oversupply of 43 000 t during the same period of 2007, according to estimates from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG).
Mine output, which increased 9,2% year on year, to 3,8-million tons, was driven primarily by increases in Australia, Bolivia, China, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Peru and the US, the group said.
Lower refined zinc metal output in Finland, France, Mexico and Namibia was more than balanced by increases in India, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Netherlands, Peru and the US, resulting in a rise in global production of 1,5%, to 3,76-million tons for the four months.
However, despite a sharp reduction in European demand of 7,5%, and falls in Japan and the Republic of Korea, global usage of refined zinc metal increased by 0,6%, mainly thanks to growth in demand from China.
China was a net importer of refined zinc metal over the first four months of 2008, with imports of 4 000 t, compared with net exports of 119 000 t over the first four months of 2007.
Prices for zinc, which is used to galvanise steel, have fallen 20% this year, as production levels outpace demand.
Zinc inventories at LME, decreased by 300 MT to 143975 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 79.3 levels. If broken can see further fall to 78.3 and 77.0, If market holds above 80.7 further rally can be seen towards 81.7 and 83.0
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 81 Target 79.50 and 78 SL 82.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX Nickel extended its rally into another day
MCX Nickel trades positive following Lme movement, registered days high near 1049.50 but settled with minor loss at 1035, days low registered near 1020.
Nickel extended its rally into another day in Asia Monday, as the market continued to price in the four-month shutdown of BHP Billiton's Kalgoorlie smelter. Overall, though, sideways trading in the dollar and oil prices left base metals struggling for direction in a very quiet session.
UBS analyst John Reade said the rally has been driven by both fresh longs and short-covering, and could have more room to run in the short term.
Nickel inventories at LME, decreased by 132 MT to 46956 MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 1050 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 1064 and 1079, If market sustains below 1035 can see a further fall towards 1020 and 1005
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Buy at 1030 Target 1050 and 1070 SL 1010
MCXARUN
9994500540
Nickel extended its rally into another day in Asia Monday, as the market continued to price in the four-month shutdown of BHP Billiton's Kalgoorlie smelter. Overall, though, sideways trading in the dollar and oil prices left base metals struggling for direction in a very quiet session.
UBS analyst John Reade said the rally has been driven by both fresh longs and short-covering, and could have more room to run in the short term.
Nickel inventories at LME, decreased by 132 MT to 46956 MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 1050 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 1064 and 1079, If market sustains below 1035 can see a further fall towards 1020 and 1005
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Buy at 1030 Target 1050 and 1070 SL 1010
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX Copper trading bullish on China import news.
MCX Copper June trades high following LME movement ,registered days high near 349.40 and closed at 345.60 with 1.84% gain from previous closing. Days low registered near 339.
Oil and dollar movements supported copper futures Monday along with bullish Chinese production data and indications of market tightness. Copper also got a boost on "the market's view that Chinese May industrial production data were positive. Indications of market tightness also boosted the red metal.
Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 875 metric tons Monday, leaving them at 122,050. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Friday afternoon, were unchanged at 11,040 short tons.
China imported 420,000 metric tons of copper concentrate in May, up 13.7% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data issued by the General Administration of Customs Monday. The country imported a total of 2.29 million tons of copper concentrate in the first five months, up 21.6% on year, it added.
China's copper output in May rose 18% on year to 324,000 metric tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. Total output in the January-May period rose 19% to 1.49 million tons, it said.
Chile exported $2.86 billion worth of copper in May, falling 33% from $4.28 billion in the same month last year, the central bank reported Monday. In April, Chile exported $3.72 billion worth of the red metal, up 10.4% from $3.37 billion in April 2007. During the second half of April and the first week of May, state copper giant Corporacion Nacional del Cobre de Chile, or Codelco, shut down several of its divisions as a result of a contract workers strike. The state miner is the world's largest copper producer.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 350.3 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 355.1 and 360.7, If market sustains below 344.7 can see a further fall towards 339.9 and 334.3
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 344.50-344 Target 348 and 352 SL 341.5
MCXARUN
9994500540
Oil and dollar movements supported copper futures Monday along with bullish Chinese production data and indications of market tightness. Copper also got a boost on "the market's view that Chinese May industrial production data were positive. Indications of market tightness also boosted the red metal.
Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 875 metric tons Monday, leaving them at 122,050. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Friday afternoon, were unchanged at 11,040 short tons.
China imported 420,000 metric tons of copper concentrate in May, up 13.7% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data issued by the General Administration of Customs Monday. The country imported a total of 2.29 million tons of copper concentrate in the first five months, up 21.6% on year, it added.
China's copper output in May rose 18% on year to 324,000 metric tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. Total output in the January-May period rose 19% to 1.49 million tons, it said.
Chile exported $2.86 billion worth of copper in May, falling 33% from $4.28 billion in the same month last year, the central bank reported Monday. In April, Chile exported $3.72 billion worth of the red metal, up 10.4% from $3.37 billion in April 2007. During the second half of April and the first week of May, state copper giant Corporacion Nacional del Cobre de Chile, or Codelco, shut down several of its divisions as a result of a contract workers strike. The state miner is the world's largest copper producer.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 350.3 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 355.1 and 360.7, If market sustains below 344.7 can see a further fall towards 339.9 and 334.3
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 344.50-344 Target 348 and 352 SL 341.5
MCXARUN
9994500540
Crude Oil : Reverses from higher levels
Oil prices recorded a new all-time high of $139.89 a barrel in NYMEX yesterday, but subsequently backed away to close in the red as focus shifted back to the lower global demand estimates.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $133.50 ($134.86) yesterday, after trading in the range $139.89 - $132.84.
Oil prices rose early in the day after a fire forced Norwegian oil company StatoilHydro to halt oil production at a North Sea platform.
The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report released on Friday cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.
Reports that Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is considering increasing its output next month by about a half-million barrels a day to a production level of 10 million barrels a day also affected the market sentiments.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.
But the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report last week had revealed that the nation's crude supplies dropped 4.6 million barrels to 302.2 million barrels for the week ended June 6, taking the total fall in crude inventories to 23.6 million in four weeks.
The price of benchmark contract of crude oil in the New York Mercantile Exchange had soared over $10 to a new all-time high of $139.12 a barrel on June 6th , recording the biggest one-day gain in dollar terms, as geo-political tensions were ignited by Israel’s threats to strike on Iran over its nuclear programme.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season, made landfall on Sunday near Mexico forcing the closure of two export terminals, but afterwards weakened to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Repeated attacks on Nigerian oil facilities sustain concerns on supply from the oil–rich Niger Delta.
Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $139.77 - $133.66 and closed at $135.34 ($135.47).
Weekly Outlook (NYMEX Crude oil July)
Resistances are $137, $138.14 and $139.14; supports $134, $132.35, $131.30. Expecting more weakness below $132.35.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 136.25; bearish below 135.72
MCXARUN
9994500540
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $133.50 ($134.86) yesterday, after trading in the range $139.89 - $132.84.
Oil prices rose early in the day after a fire forced Norwegian oil company StatoilHydro to halt oil production at a North Sea platform.
The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report released on Friday cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.
Reports that Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is considering increasing its output next month by about a half-million barrels a day to a production level of 10 million barrels a day also affected the market sentiments.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.
But the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report last week had revealed that the nation's crude supplies dropped 4.6 million barrels to 302.2 million barrels for the week ended June 6, taking the total fall in crude inventories to 23.6 million in four weeks.
The price of benchmark contract of crude oil in the New York Mercantile Exchange had soared over $10 to a new all-time high of $139.12 a barrel on June 6th , recording the biggest one-day gain in dollar terms, as geo-political tensions were ignited by Israel’s threats to strike on Iran over its nuclear programme.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season, made landfall on Sunday near Mexico forcing the closure of two export terminals, but afterwards weakened to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Repeated attacks on Nigerian oil facilities sustain concerns on supply from the oil–rich Niger Delta.
Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $139.77 - $133.66 and closed at $135.34 ($135.47).
Weekly Outlook (NYMEX Crude oil July)
Resistances are $137, $138.14 and $139.14; supports $134, $132.35, $131.30. Expecting more weakness below $132.35.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 136.25; bearish below 135.72
MCXARUN
9994500540
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