basemetals intraday

Basemetals
29 May 2008 10:11:40



Base Metals May 29, 2008

Major Economic Data:


The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .5% in April, better than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, also better than expected.


The Mortgage Bankers' Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 4.6% last week.
Real GDP in Malaysia was up 7.1% in the first quarter from a year ago, stronger than expected. Malaysia is the third largest economy in Southeast Asia.

Copper


Copper dropped to a two-month low in London as rising inventories signalled slower demand. MCX Copper June dropped towards the low of 342.40 and bounced back to 347.80

Metals bearish movement was supported by weakness oil and bullion prices as Crude oil fell in New York as prices around $130 a barrel may lead consumers in the U.S. and Asia to limit fuel purchases. Gold fell in New York, heading for the biggest two-day drop in three weeks, as crude oil extended its losses for a second straight day, reducing demand for the precious metal an inflation hedge. Silver also dropped.

Copper stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange climbed 1,400 metric tons to 125,800 tons, the highest since March 13, according to the exchange's daily warehouse report.

Metal orders may drop ahead of the northern hemisphere summer when manufacturing slows, said Alex Heath, head of base-metals trading at RBC Capital Markets in London.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 351.4 levels. If market breaches 351.4 may see prices to take further upside towards 354.9 and 359.4 however if it holds back below 343.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 338.8 and 335.3

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 346 Target 349 and 352 SL 344.10

Nickel

Nickel fell for a second day in Asia on a weaker outlook for demand from the stainless steel industry, which accounts for two-thirds of total nickel use. Copper fell.

Stainless steel output has been picking up more slowly than anticipated, according to Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Nickel inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses stood at 48,558 metric tons yesterday, nearly 7 times the level a year ago.

The price of nickel, which has halved in the past year, may rebound as China shuts furnaces producing the substitute nickel pig iron, a Chinese smelter said.

China last August issued orders restricting investment in nickel pig iron furnaces and demanded the closure of furnaces with a capacity of less than 300 cubic meters to curb energy consumption. Nickel is used in the making of stainless steel.

Nickel pig iron, processed from low-grade nickel ore, contains 4 to 10 percent nickel. The price of nickel has plunged because of the use of substitute and as stainless steel producers ran down inventories rather than buy new stocks.

Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered prices on May 22 after mills reduced usage. The raw material has been in a surplus for 13 months through March, according to the International Nickel Study Group.

China's nickel demand, including refined metal and nickel-ore content, may jump 20 percent this year on increased stainless-steel production, an analyst at Xinhua News Agency's specialist metals publication said.

Nickel consumption may rise from 335,000 metric tons last year, Chong Dahai of the fortnightly China Metals report said in an interview at a conference in Shanghai. Imports of the refined metal may outpace ore because of falling prices on the London Metal Exchange, the stronger yuan and the government's crackdown on small furnaces making nickel pig iron, he said.

Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –54 MT to 48504 MT

MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 948 If market breaches below 948 may see prices to take further correction towards 928 and 906 However if it holds back above 989 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1011 and 1031

Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 970-975 Target 955 and 940 SL 986

Zinc

MCX Zinc May dropped towards the low of 88.35 following heave inventory data at LME and move was supported by weakness in copper and bullion-energy prices.

Zinc stocks in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose the most since Jan. 7. Inventories climbed 7,000 metric tons, or 5.4 percent, to 135,650 tons, the highest since October 2006, according to exchange figures.

MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 88.4 If market breaches below 88.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 86.8 and 85.3 However if it holds back above 91.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 94.7

Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91 Target 88 and 86 SL 92.30

Lead

Lead fell to a one-year low on the London Metal Exchange. The metal for delivery in three months fell to $1,980 a metric ton, the lowest since May 17, 2007, and was at $2,000 a ton as of 1:21 p.m. local time. Prices have dropped 22 percent this year.

Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was -25 MT to 63575 MT

MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 85.9 If market breaches below 85.9 may see prices to take further correction towards 84.3 and 83.1 However if it holds back above 88.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 89.8 and 91.4

Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 88 Target 86 and 84 SL at 89.20

Aluminium

Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1225 MT to 1072300 MT

Saudi Arabian Mining Co., the state- owned metals and minerals producer known as Ma'aden, said its aluminum project with Rio Tinto Group will be delayed to 2012 due to the lack of power supply.

Workers at CVG Industria Venezolana de Aluminio CA, Venezuela's biggest state-owned aluminium smelter, went on strike after bonuses were withheld, Correo del Caroni said. The strike began at 9:30 a.m. local time yesterday after the company sent a letter saying it wouldn't make payments, the Venezuelan newspaper said.

MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 126.8 levels. If market breaches 126.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 129.0 and 131.0 However if it holds back below 122.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 120.6 and 118.4

Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 124 Target 126 and 128 SL 122.90

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The US dollar has gained against the euro and yen as markets fully factor a hundred percent chance of no rate cut in the end of June meeting. In June Eurozone and Asian growth will be the key for the US dollar as US growth is already discounted. If they falter and inflation zooms in these regions, the US dollar could pare some of its 2008 losses. Overall June will be a volatile month for the currency markets. Crude oil traders will be preparing for the upcoming US hurricane season. For the base metals Chinese demand will be the key. Zinc and Nickel can fall further in June if demand does not rise as much. For copper it’s better to remain on the sidelines.

If crude oil falls, gold and silver fall more. Whereas when crude oil rises, gold and silver do not rise as much. This is not a short term positive sign. Crude oil prices will be the key for gold and silver in the short term. If crude oil remains firm, gold will continue to find buyers on sharp dips. Gold June futures are expiring tomorrow. Traders and investors have started investing for June. In June spot gold will trade in a wider $850-$950 range. A break from the $850-$950 zone will be there if the US dollar and energy prices change track.

SILVER -- JULY FUTURE

Silver has to close over $1754 tomorrow else it will fall back to the $1696, $1606 zone.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

As long as crude oil holds $124.80 downside will be limited and it will target $135 once again.

MCXARUN
9994500540

energy intraday

Energy
23 May 2008 10:35:10



Energy

Major Headlines:

Oil soared on Thursday, hitting new record highs above $135 per barrel on both sides of the Atlantic before turning lower on a combination of profit-taking and a bounce in the dollar

Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production rates.

The price surge over the last two sessions followed a surprise drop in U.S. fuel stocks inventories in the weekly report from the Department of Energy, sparking further supply fears. U.S. crude oil inventories plunged by 5.4 million barrels, confounding market calls for a modest rise. Gasoline stocks also fell sharply, down by 800,000 barrels against predictions for a small weekly decline ahead of the driving season

Expected strong diesel demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.

The news was particularly market-sensitive, coming days ahead of the U.S.Summer-holiday driving season that kicks off this weekend for the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

Americans have begun buying less gasoline as prices at the pump hit new highs. The change in driving habits is raising concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending, the main engine of the world's biggest economy.

The rapid surge in oil prices came as the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed its 2008 growth forecast for the U.S. economy, the world's biggest oil consumer. The Fed on Wednesday slashed its forecasts to a range of 0.3 to 1.2 percent, from its prior forecast of 1.3 to 2.0 percent in January. The central bank cited higher oil prices as a key factor weighing on momentum.

Natural gas in storage in the U.S. rose last week but is 0.2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural-gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 85 billion cubic feet to more than 1.61 trillion cubic feet for the week ending May 16.

MCX Crude Oil June

Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5789 levels. If market breaches 5789 may see prices to take further upside towards 5907 and 5993 however if it holds back below 5585 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5499 and 5381

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5750 Target 5680 and 5610 Stop loss 5790

MCX Natural Gas May

Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 518.67 levels. If market breaches 518.67 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.33 and 534.67 however if it holds back below 502.67 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.33 and 486.67

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 507 Target 511 and 515 Stop loss at 503

bullion intraday

Bullions
23 May 2008 10:27:56



Bullion

Major Headlines:

Gold fell from a one-month high as the dollar rebounded against the euro and crude oil dropped from a record, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also declined.

The dollar snapped a two-day slide, rising from the lowest in a month against the euro. Before today, gold had gained 11 percent this year as the euro climbed 8.3 percent against the dollar.

Rocketing oil prices, which Thursday struck a record $135.09, stoked inflation fears to which the precious metal is often bought as a hedge and stemmed gold's losses. Meanwhile, some say there is a strong chance the dollar could fall again, which would likely boost gold.

The dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs by the end of the year to fight inflation. Traders see a 30 percent chance the Fed will raise its target interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 2.25 percent in September, up from 21 percent yesterday, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $540.8 billion last week, the central bank said. The value of reserves increased by $4 billion in the week ended May 16, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, The reserves gained $2.9 billion in the previous week.

Gold sales in the United Arab Emirates rose 15 percent in the first quarter, Asharq al-Awsat reported, citing the World Gold Council. Sales in the first quarter reached 3.1 billion dirhams ($844 million) from 2.7 billion dirhams in the year-earlier period, the Saudi-owned newspaper said, citing the council.

Gold has trekked higher for five straight sessions -- gaining 7 percent in the past week -- as crude's seemingly relentless drive higher adds to growing inflation fears and boots demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Precious metals are traditionally viewed as hedges against inflation because they're known for holding their value.

U.S.Economy:

The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 9,000 last week to 365,000, less than expected.

Currencies update:

Statistics Canada said that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in March, up .1% on the month. They also noted that the operating profits of Canada's corporations totaled C$67.8 billion in the first quarter of 2008, down 1.1% from the previous quarter.

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volume was down .2% in April.

Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was down 1.0% in March and down 2.5% from a year ago.

MCX Gold June

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12923 levels. If market breaches 12923 may see prices to take further upside towards 13105 and 13212 however if it holds back below 12634 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 12527 and 12345

Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12820 Target 12745 and 12610 Stoploss at 12865

MCX Silver July

Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 25315 levels. If market breaches 25315 may see prices to take further upside towards 25709 and 26034 however if it holds back below 24596 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 24271 and 23877

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 25110 Target 24820 and 23650 Stop loss at 25250

MCXARUN
9994500540

basemetals intraday

Base Metals
23 May 2008 10:21:47



Base Metals )

Major Economic Data

First-time claims for state unemployment dropped by 9,000 to 365,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ending May 17, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims were the lowest since the week ended April 5. The four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,000 to 372,250. In the first quarter U.S. home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% -- the largest quarterly price decline on record, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Thursday. Prices fell 3.1% in the past year. In the prior quarter, prices declined 1.4%. For March, prices fell 0.4%.

Statistics Canada said that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in March, up .1% on the month. They also noted that the operating profits of Canada's corporations totaled C$67.8 billion in the first quarter of 2008, down 1.1% from the previous quarter.

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volume was down .2% in April.

Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was down 1.0% in March and down 2.5% from a year ago.

Copper

MCX Copper June traded lower following movement at LME. US Home price index and a sharp correction in bullion and energy prices supported the move. Copper dripped almost by 4%.

Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was 250 MT to 125200 MT

Chinese imports of refined copper in April rose 1.2 percent to 127,977 tons from March, the Beijing-based customs office said. That has helped drive copper inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange down 37 percent this year, while prices have gained 24 percent.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 342.2 If market breaches below 342.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 337.4 and 329.8 However if it holds back above 354.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 362.2 and 367.0

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 348.50-349 target 345 and 341 SL 351.60

Nickel

Nickel fell to the lowest in almost two years in London as a surplus over the past year discouraged buying.

Nickel has been in a surplus for 13 consecutive months through March, according to the International Nickel Study Group.

Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest producer of the metal used in stainless steel, lowered prices today for a second time this week after steel mills reduced usage.Nickel fell to the lowest in almost two years on the London Metal Exchange.

Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -258 MT to 48870 MT

Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered the price of the refined metal by 4.6 percent today. That's the second price cut within a week.The price was cut by 10,000 yuan to 208,000 yuan ($29,949) a metric ton, according to a statement on the Web site of the Gansu, western China-based company. The last reduction was on May 15.

MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 984.0 If market breaches below 984.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 953.0 and 904.0 However if it holds back above 1064.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1113.0 and 1144.0

Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1020 Target 987 and 965 SL 1032

Zinc

MCX Zinc fell by more then 3.5% following other metals at LME while sharp correction in bullion and energy also supported the move.

Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was 375 MT to 128525 MT

MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 87.7 If market breaches below 87.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 84.8 and 80.9 However if it holds back above 94.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 98.4 and 101.3

Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.30-91.50 Target 89.60 and 88 SL 92.65

Lead

Lead fell to the lowest in one year on the London Metal Exchange.

Hindustan Zinc Lowers Lead Prices by 2%, Keeps Zinc Unchanged

Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 50 MT to 63900 MT

MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 84.2 If market breaches below 84.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 81.6 and 77.0 However if it holds back above 91.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 96.1 and 98.7

Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 87.65 Target 86.60 and 85 SL 89



Aluminium

Aluminium gained for a third consecutive day, shrugging off a 4.5 percent stockpile jump to a four-year high. Options for the contract to expire next month show investors are betting that prices will stay above $3,000 a ton.

Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was 9975 MT to 1075600 MT

MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 125.3 If market breaches below 125.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 123.7 and 121.2 However if it holds back above 129.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 132.0 and 133.6

Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 128 Target 126 and 124.5 SL 129.15


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Global trading volumes will fall as the day progresses due to US and UK holidays on Monday. Retail investors and traders will be going on their extended weekend. But the markets will not sleep. Early May, UK markets were closed and the US markets was open, when comex copper July futures rose to $428.70 from $384 in a few minutes only to crash thereafter. Do not expect markets to sleep on Monday. There could be brief phases of high volatility. Once again the US dollar and crude oil prices will drive most of the commodities.

Base metals got the thrashing on expectations that higher crude oil prices will result in a further slowdown in global growth. The second round effects due to higher crude oil prices is yet come. If over the next few months global growth (including China) does not slowdown as much then base metals will rise. Technically lead, zinc and nickel are in the oversold zone and a technical correction can come up anytime.

COPPER -- JULY FUTURE

100 day MA at $365.20 is the key support. A consolidated fall below $365.20 will result in $348.20.

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

OUR HEAD LINE "CLOSE ABV 12475 TEST 12600-700-800" ACHIEVED book profit on buy abv 12425/12475/12660, for the day buy abv 12850 S/L 12830 and T/p 12900-925/13000 OR buy ard 12610-15 S/L 12600 and T/p 12660-690 upto 12750 (any time close above 12850/13100/13425 bullish while close below 12300/11725/11460/11150/11000-10925 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

OUR WORDS "close above 24500 test 25000-50 atleast in coming days" ACHIEVED. book profit on buy abv 23725/850/24450-500, for the day buy abv 25000 S/L 24910 and T/p 25100-200 upto 25400 OR buy ard 24675-80 S/L 24650 and T/p 24750-850 (any time close below 23300/ 22750-300/21575-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 25000/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

book profit on buy abv 5400/5500, for the day buy only abv 5675 S/L 5645 and T/p 5710-40 upto 5780 OR sell below 5590 S/L 5615 and T/p 5550-55/20/ 5475/down rally (now crude need to close above 5675 for bullish rally while close below 5460/5310/5120/5050/4740/ 4450 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


book profit on buy abv 346.5-347/351, for the day buy only abv 354.5 & 355.5 S/L 353.25 and T/p 356.5/358/361-361.5/close above test 372-375 atleast in coming days OR sell below 347 S/L 348.6 and T/p 345.5-343.5/341 where good support seen again, fall below 338-336/330 down rally sharp (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340.5/336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540